World Series Prediction: How Will Cardinals Improbable Run End?

This is tough. Predicting the outcome of the World Series when I have a rooting interest in one of the teams. (Rooting interest? How 'bout "complete, fanatical interest".)

The Cardinals resurrection from 10.5 games out of the Wild Card race (as every broadcast and recap show reminds us), was a miraculous turnaround, thanks in no part to the Atlanta Braves. Qualifying for the post-season is one thing. Beating the heavily favored Phillies in the NLDS and then the almost-as-heavily-favored Brewers in the NLCS is quite another. And it's just not the winning, it's the how:

• The Phillies assembled an all-time pitching rotation, the likes of which are rarely seen, and perhaps the best comparison was the heyday of the Maddux-Glavine-Smoltz Braves. The Cards beat Cliff Lee, Roy Oswalt and Roy Halliday, reigning Cy Young winner in the NL, and likely runner-up this year. In other words, the Cardinals beat good pitching.
• Against the Brewers, the Cardinals used exceptional bullpen pitching and relentless hitting to overcome a potentially momentum-crushing game 1 loss (a game which the Cards had a lead in). After the Brewers' Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder were a combined 3-7 with 2 HR and 6 RBI in game 1, these two dramatically contained. 

I don't know a whole lot about the Rangers, but I know enough to be wary. The line-up is stacked. The pitching is good enough, featuring three left-handed starters. The Cards have in recent years struggled against lefties...but then again, they beat Cliff Lee in Game 2 of the NLDS (after thumping him pretty good in the regular season...at least once). 

As I see it, these are the Card's advantages:

• Never-say-die attitude and momentum that got them here. Do they have enough mojo to keep it going?
• Tony La Russa magic. After leaving Jaime Garcia in too long in Game 1, he pulled all the right levers in the NLCS against a post-season rookie manager. Ron Washington is better...but he's simply not in TLR's class.
• Potentially four games at Busch means only three games (at most) with designated hitter. Yeah, the Ranger's line-up is stacked, but the Cards are not far behind, and when the pitchers hit, I'd say it's very close to even.
• Chris Carpenter. If Carp can be marginally close to what he was against Houston on the last night of the season and against Philadelphia to win the NLDS, he'll win Game 1 tonight and start the series on a strong note for the the good guys. Even ESPN's "experts" (more on them below) who are picking Texas recognize Carp as the one true "ace" in this series. Chris Carpenter's postseason ERA is 3.11, and his opponent tonight, C.J. Wilson, is 5.4. Advantage Cards. I think the Cardinals starting pitching IS better overall, too. 
• Albert Pujols. After a pretty good NLDS and a lousy Game 1 in the NLCS, Pujols again showed why he's an all-time player. The talk is about him staying in St. Louis or not, with his pending free-agency. Against the Tigers in 2006, Albert was lackluster. Aside from a big HR in Game 1, he contributed little. I expect Albert to be at least as good as he was in the NLCS and add another line to his daunting resume. 
• Battle-tested bullpen. After chumping it up most of the regular season, this crew of arms was nothing short of amazing in the NLCS. Two days off leading up to the World Series will go a long way to helping these guys get rested, and if Carp can go deep into Game 1, that's even more rest. Sure, the Rangers' lineup is tougher than the Brewers was, but TLR will know how to match up his guys. 

Not knowing much about the Rangers, I'll quickly hit some of their advantages from a novice viewpoint:

• Powerful line-up chock-full of veterans
• They were in the Series last year, so they won't be overawed.
• I hear their bullpen is decent as well
• Probably some other nice, warm and fuzzy stuff

On ESPN.com, none of the so-called "experts" picked the Cardinals to win the NLDS, and only one picked them to win the NLCS. For the World Series, the "experts" are going Rangers 21-4. That is insane. Some sample comments: "The Rangers' offense is simply too powerful for the Cardinals to handle." (Would he have said the same about the Brewers?) "This has been a team on a mission all season, and the Cardinals are hardly equipped to get in the way." (Yeah, the Cardinals "only" beat the team with the best record in baseball in the NLDS). "Texas is a versatile team that can beat you with power, speed, pitching or defense, and ultimately its roster depth gives it the nod." (Yadi shuts down the run, and Cards are hitting pretty good too).

I would be surprised if any team swept or won in five games. Rangers in 6 or 7 or Cards in 6 or 7 seems the likeliest outcome. 

And, having said that, I can't pick against my Cards! Counted out, left for dead, brushed aside, and here they are as one of the last two teams. I said I had a rooting interest. I'm probably not objective, but the Phillies and Brewers can tell you all about the Cardinals winning ways. 

Cardinals in Six Games!